[morini]

The tyres thing is a complex issue. It's circuit and temperature dependant for a start. Last year Ferrari could work their tyres in a bigger window than just about any other team. This years car, one thing they did (which may have changed the characteristics a bit) is increase the wheelbase.

Not saying that is the reason, and tyre management is a black art at the best of times. But they don't seem so good on the tyre front this year. Not terrible, by any stretch, but certainly not a major advantage like it was last year.

[PapaofGags]

Hammy with more softs than anyone. Is that a mistake I wonder, most others banking on the US.

Lewis/Mercedes seem to like the soft, I think Lewis go's well here +possible rain I am much more hopeful than I was a few weeks back.

[Monster Hesh]

Morini is right, it is a complex issue. Some think that the Ferrari floor and rear wing upgrade in Silverstone, that brought good downforce gains, also brought bad tyre wear. Which is just another piece in the swing of form.

[forzaferrari]

Morini is right, it is a complex issue. Some think that the Ferrari floor and rear wing upgrade in Silverstone, that brought good downforce gains, also brought bad tyre wear. Which is just another piece in the swing of form.

Yep, Ferrari themselves had said as much and also said the revised rear suspension has also created slightly more rear loading but the gains still outweigh the loss in this area which they claim can be minimised by various settings.

[Jody Barton]

I think Ferrari have only really struggled with tyres at Spain so far. Although their car did not like the Softs in either Silverstone or Hockenheim. It's a bit strange. The potential reason could be the new floor they introduced in Silverstone. I mean last year they were hard on their front left at Silverstone, we remember the punctures from 2017 right? So I withheld my judgement, but yeah, right now after Hockenheim they certainly appeared to be working their rears in particular very hard, and they were overheating their rears, that's a new characteristic in the last two races. So either it's track specific, or they've baked an issue into their car... either way though they've got a rapid car.

Mercedes on the other hand have brought a new floor in France and bolted bits on it Austria and a very big aero update in Silverstone and they've upped their rake from France too, in Hockenheim they ran a super low front end and a higher rear, the rake was 1.39 degrees, for Mercedes that's a lot of rake. They are seriously working their concept, and with that they are seemingly finding a wider working window for these tyres and being less harsh on them. They have however, seemingly slipped behind Ferrari on ultimate pace. Still a very rapid car, and if they get on top of their early season issues they're have a solid base on which to push off on post summer break.

As to Hungaroring then S3 Spain, S3 Hockenheim, S2 Baku and of course Monaco are all good indicators as to how teams might perform in Humgary, unfortunately that gives us a super mixed result when predicting how teams will go. Monaco the order were clearly Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, Monaco is probably the closest to Hungary. Section 3 in Spain that's actually very similar to S2 in Hungary, and their this season it was nip and tuck between Red Bull and Mercedes. In qualifying actually Lewis set the S3 time, but during the race Red Bull were constantly quick through their, and we all know what it did to Ferrari. S2 in Baku is probably least like anywhere in the Hungaroring, but the mid traction zones out of corners is a super similar challenge to much of the Hungaroring, and their Ferrari were best, then Red Bull and Mercedes struggled their. However, we then come to S3 in Hockenheim, where Mercedes really surprised me by topping the charts. Maybe Red Bull compromised their set up in the twisty stuff so they were a bit quicker on the straights in S1 and 2, but that's the problem they have. For me Red Bull have shown way better consistency in Hungaroring sections throughout the season so far. What is a shock though is how poor relative to the other top two Ferrari were in S3 in Hockeheim. It shocked me. Could be track specific though... but what it does show is that in twisty stuff Mercedes have found something, so they're in with a shot this weekend.

If Danny takes an engine penalty (AGAIN!!!) then I would say it's Max's race to lose. I still think over the season so far you'd say Ferrari might slightly shade Mercedes. But much depends between the Silver Arrows and Ferrari about whether the new floor on the red car has caused them over heating issues on their rears, because if that is now a characteristic of their car, they might actually slip behind Mercedes who have really worked on their slow corner and car rotation very well. I still think for me the order will be Red Bull, Ferrari and then Mercedes. However, I am not confident in the prediction between Ferrari and Mercedes. If it rains all bets are off though, and if it does rain, I'd back Hamilton and Max to prove a cut above.

[morini]

That all sounds reasonable. I think Mercedes will come away from Hungary very happy if RBR win and they finish ahead of the red cars. I wasn't optimistic on this one, but given recent form and the fact we may have some mixed conditions I am actually looking forward to it.

Didn't you say you were thinking of attending Jody?

[Jody Barton]

Well remembered, yes I am going. Also off to Spa this year. Hungary is a last minute thing as my other half's Finnish cousin makes the trek every year and he's invited me to go with his mates for quali and the race... in a tent... hence me looking up the weather forecast.

He has friends in Budapest who say the weather has been quite dry recently, and if you know the area well, you'll know that means a storm is brewing. Tuomas (other half's cousin) is convinced it's going to rain. He's flying out on Wednesday I'm getting there late Friday evening. Hoping for a good race as it's normally crap there.

[morini]

Well remembered, yes I am going. Also off to Spa this year. Hungary is a last minute thing as my other half's Finnish cousin makes the trek every year and he's invited me to go with his mates for quali and the race... in a tent... hence me looking up the weather forecast.

He has friends in Budapest who say the weather has been quite dry recently, and if you know the area well, you'll know that means a storm is brewing. Tuomas (other half's cousin) is convinced it's going to rain. He's flying out on Wednesday I'm getting there late Friday evening. Hoping for a good race as it's normally crap there.

Book a hotel fella!

You can keep that camping shit 

[edit] And post in the attending events section with the lowdown!

[PapaofGags]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p74_i4-V7KQ

Jody, Teds Kravitz Hungary camping note book, just incase it helps, its for Brits but you might learn some thing from it.

Edit 4m 46s talks about camping worth a look.  

Quote Morini "Book a hotel fella!"   

[Jody Barton]

Morini, I'll let you into a secret... I have booked an Air B&B flat to myself, two bedrooms and a sofabed if the Finns don't fancy camping. But they camp every year apparently. We've got seats at the last corner both days, or that's what I've been told. Going there with seasoned pro's who do it every year.