[Jody Barton]

Right, to explain the 2.8 seconds a lap quicker. Right at the end of FP2 Lewis bolted on a new set of Ultra Soft tyres as part of his race sim and went back out onto the track and did 2 laps on the new tyres when he'd burned some fuel off that were blisteringly quick. A few motorsports journo's also raised their eyebrows at those lap times and there were quite a few Tweets about it. Are Mercedes hiding phenomenal pace? Or did Lewis take all the life out of those tyres in those two laps? We won't know until Sunday I feel. But up until that point it was looking like the Mercedes was the quickest over single lap pace, but not by a huge margin, and that the Ferrari was the quicker car in race trim, and by a healthy margin. I think Lewis was the heavy fueled Merc this weekend though. Honestly it looked nicely poised for Sunday, with the Mercedes trying to hold the quicker Red Cars behind them. Then there was those two laps from Lewis. If that is actually indicative of Mercedes race pace here (which I think it isn't) then the others can go home now. This is a really weird Friday tbh. Not sure what to make of any of it.

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Someone on crash.net is saying it was a timing error for Lewis, and it works out to him being only 0.8 seconds a lap quicker on that last stint. However, that is still a pretty big margin isn't it?

[Monster Hesh]

Theoretical lap times. With speed trap figures.



Every race weekend Friday afternoon, Jody has me confused : P
One lap pace, Merc look on point, theoretical laptimes extends Lewis' lead. Tyres are a little confusing, we could see a Spain repeat where no tyre is the advantage.
FP3 will be more telling, if Ferrari are to challenge, they need to lead FP3 by 0.2-0.3s. 
RedBull just haven't turned up. Unless Renault new qually mode delivers, it could bring RB closer. Mistakes are easy here, and the short lap means its hard to make the time back up. Which could shuffle the top 6 slightly.
Race pace. Mega stints from Vettel, fast and consistent. Merc's were all over the shop, traffic, pace hiding, I dont know. Ignoring the anomaly laps, FER lead on US, Merc lead on S. Getting mixed reports on whos tyres were better condition, majority say Ferrari's were cleaner. 
Not seeing those alarming laps from HAM or BOT Jody. Not even in the FIA lap times, must of been timing and tracking info error.

Midfield, could be close. Haas looking quickest, but weren't so comfortable on track, some stability issues. 
Renault new MGU-K and qually mode will really be put to the test.
What I found most interesting was Sauber, every practice session this season they have featured in the top 5 of the speed trap figures. Now, they are a bit further down, yet higher up in the lap times. To me that indicates, they are starting to pack on the downforce. Things are getting better for the team, that they are advancing so fast.

My predicted pole time 1:03.1......If dry....

No surprises in remaining tyres going into Saturday.

From F1 Press release. Quite interesting. 
Fuel used from last year race: Min 100.1kg, Max 104.5kg
Pitlane loss: 20s

[Jody Barton]

I think we could see a two stop race here, in might actually be quicker to hammer two sets of Ultra Softs and switch to either the Softs or Super Softs depending on which your car likes. So, for Ferrari it might actually be best the go US / US / SS or mix it up and go US / SS / US. Because it looks like Ferrari have the pace to make that work. The rear Softs coming off of one of the Ferrari's (I think Kimi) had serious blistering.

Mercedes on the otherhand were really rapid on the Softs. Hamilton's quickest time of the session was set on the Softs, and Vettel couldn't match him on the US, essentially being 0.3 down on him. Lewis set a stonking first sector on the US, then hit loads of traffic in S2 and had traffic in turn 9 that compromised his line in S3 yet missed his Soft time by 0.073. The Mercedes is quick over one lap here. I don't think Ferrari even if they're sand bagging have the pace to match Mercedes once the new donkeys are back in the cars. However, the long stints look weird for Mercedes. Seriously, Bottas matched Seb pretty much on the US. Lewis a couple of tenths or so back, yet Lewis came alive on the Softs and was a course of tenths up, and his tyres looked great. Bottas' second stint after the US stint was on the Super Softs and he was beating Vettel's Soft stint times and his Ultra Soft times. Meanwhile Kimi's times on the Super Soft weren't bad but they weren't great either, quicker than the Soft run done by Seb initially, but rapidly dropped off. I think Mercedes therefore might try to get into Q3 on the SS and then try and 1 stop on the SS / S. Ferrari might try to make the one stop work by going US / S.

I don't see Mercedes making two stops. Not quick enough on the SS to make those work, and not really quick enough with the required durability to make the US work. But, going long on the SS and switching to the S given the pace they had looks optimal for them. However, given the Ferrari look good on the US and can make them last I think adding it up they should go US / SS / US and finish the race going very fast, if the lap times come down with the fuel load the extra 20's for the second pit stop will be eaten away rapidly and see them right on the backs of the Mercedes with fresher quicker tyres and 3 DRS zones. If they go one stop I honestly think Mercedes will have them covered because of their pace on the Softs.

Red Bull are nowhere. Given their stint pace they'll struggle to keep Haas, Leclerc and Ocon behind them. That will leave Ferrari that gap to drop I to for the second pitstop, but I'm not even sure Red Bull are able to one stop. Sure the Soft tyre lasted long for them, but their pace on it is dire. Red Bull are in trouble here I think.

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PS. Monster Hesh I think your predicted pole lap is about right, it is totally where I expect Hamilton and maybe Bottas to be if they can switch the US on properly (which Lewis S1 time suggest they can) and make them last. However, not sure they'll hold out for the entire lap soooo... Hmmm... Vettel has a potential 1:03.3 in his car... but given what we saw from the spec 2.1 Mercedes engine... I predict Lewis or Bottas with a 1:02.9.

[NeilP]

Hamilton seems to be able to keep life in his Ultra Softs as good if not better than any driver so I would be shocked if he in particular did anything other than a one stop. (US and SS). I highly doubt anyone in the top six is going to risk starting on a harder compound than the US. It will be interesting to see how Ferrari do in this race and by the end of it we should be a good position to see just how much (if any) advantages all the Mercedes upgrades are worth by comparison.

Personally all things being equal I think Mercedes will win the race (a dangerous assumption in any form of racing) I would not rule out a Bottas win. I do not see Red Bull winning and I do not see Kimi winning either. Like I have said before neither Hamilton or Vettel have a particularly good track record here (winning) so who knows. I am looking for a good race especially in the midfield.

[Jody Barton]

Hamilton seems to be able to keep life in his Ultra Softs as good if not better than any driver so I would be shocked if he in particular did anything other than a one stop.

Hate to be a doubting Douglas, but... off of the top of my head I can think of 3 races this year where Mercedes deliberately qualified on the SS or harder in Q2 specifically because they couldn't make the US last long and chewed through it, ESPECIALLY Hamilton, starting with China where Lewis qualified on the SOFT instead of the US, Baku where he qualified on the SS instead of the US and ate through his Super Soft's quicker than Bottas, and quicker than Vettel ate through his US's, and ending with last weekends race in France at Paul Riccard where Lewis Hamilton did not want the US near his car come race day... sooooo... I'm not sure you can back that statement up!!! Lewis this season has tended to actually prefer the harder compounds being used, and is generally performing better relative to others on the SS, S and M tyres. It has been the US and HS that have caused him and Mercedes concerns. The issue Mercedes have here in Austria though is that the track is a very short lap, and trying the qualify here on the SS does not give them the safety net of having more speed and grunt because they don't have the track distance to use it and open a safe gap. They might be able to get through on the SS in Q2, Bottas' quick laps on the SS showed in ultimate pace there's possibly 4 tenths between the US and SS here, which might not be big enough a gap to scrape through ahead of some relative quick looking midfield runners on the US. However, if they can, then I think they will, because if they can't I can see Mercedes maybe needing to 2 stop because they can't get the US to last long enough here it seems to me. We'll see this afternoon I guess. Watch the Qualifying be wet now and throw all of this out the window!!!

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PS I did the calculations last night and for Mercedes I think the fastest race strategy was SS switch to S. For Ferrari it was US switch to SS and then another set of US. But it was tight between US switch to S. I think the issue is, (and I really don't have swanky race simulation software), that I'm not sure Ferrari can gap Red Bull quick enough in the opening stint to pit and not come out behind them which given Red Bulls pace could ruin their race. If Red Bull look like trying to make a one stop work I think that'll force Ferrari onto a one stop, but for Red Bull clearly two stopping is easily the quickest strategy for them with US to SS and then either another set of SS or US. Red Bulls issue is that both Haas' cars looked quicker in the race sims, especially Magnussen, and Leclerc, Ocon and Hulkenberg look like threats to them too. It's a dilemma for the big boys.

One stopping Mercedes should (with no VSC / SC) do the race in 1:19:35.5 (I know hyper specific right?)

Ferrari two stopping should do the race in 1:19:10.9
(Is that a big enough delta in the last stint to get passed the Mercs though? I actually think it is).

Red Bull two stopping should do the race in 1:20:22.3, which I think if there ISN'T a VSC or SC in the first stint MIGHT give Ferrari the chance to gap Red Bull and pit and get out before them.

But all of this is based on the fact Red Bull haven't found a set up that works for them yet, and means they're eating the tyres. If they fix those issues over night then Ferrari will have a big dilemma. Because two stopping is nearly 30 seconds quicker for them, whereas it is the other way round for Mercedes with a two stop being 27 seconds slower.

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You know what, looking over the data from Friday I have to say some of it doesn't make sense to me. Mercedes in particular looked erratic, their times were not consistent, and in the past when that was the case in 2017 they were either hinding their true pace, or it was indicative that they'd have a terrible race (it was normally the later). Ferrari seem to be hurting the Softs here, and might not like using them in the race, which could ruin their weekend, but for them two stopping is the way to go, which is weird because when I've done this in the past they've always been the team that looks quickest on the one stop, Spain and France aside. Red Bull just look awful.

[Monster Hesh]

Jody, that is one hell of a post, awesome stuff, thankyou! Race length predictions is something else, all fuel loads, fuel burn, tyre deg and deltas into the equations is deep. This is what I would like to see more of!!

[Monster Hesh]

I nice FP3, it is looking close. Ferrari looked to be setup near perfect, but dont think they are ahead enough to challenge for pole.
S3 could secure the front row lock out for Merc, they are easily the best there.
RedBull really are in trouble, S1 they aren't too far behind on the speedtrap, so they are loosing the time in the 1 corner. They really could loose out to Haas, they were very close you yesterdays race pace.
Leclerc end of session shudder seemed very severe. Onboard was crazy.

I think you would of been spot on with your strategy prediction Jody, if Ferrari had used their Softs in this session.
Delta between the tyres is very small 0.2-0.3s between each step.
Fer and Merc have luxury of starting tyre options, RedBull too close to second tier to risk it.

Elements after FP3.

[Jody Barton]

I think given a tenth here is more like 3 to 3 tenths elsewhere, well, I think Vettel is in with a shot at pole. He'll need to be near perfect, and Lewis and Bottas not quite perfect, but he has a shot at it I think. I've got the ultimate lap time prediction of Lewis a 1:02.844, I have Bottas at a 1:02.897, and Vettel a 1:02.923. Yeah, I'm being that hyoer specific today, so I don't think it's a forgone conclusion at all. Race pace, I'm now certain Ferrari depending on where they qualify might try a two stop. Maybe both Ferrari and Mercedes will try to get into Q3 with the SS. I think they have the pace after watching FP3, and then Ferrari can suck it and see if they want to two stop or one stop. I think Mercedes have to try for a one stop, because otherwise Ferrari will be too quick here in race trim with 3 DRS zones.

[Monster Hesh]

Leclerc gear box change.

[Jody Barton]

Leclerc gear box change.

That's a real shame for the lad, he's been looking really, really quick around here, such a shame. Still, bet he starts in front of Ericsson!