(15-11-2017, 06:24 AM)UncleElias Wrote: As those of you who read my posts on Motorsports know, this is only me chit-chatting. I will argue my opinions/thoughts strongly but it doesn't mean that I think I'm right.
Porsche would be the most interesting and I think competitive of those potential new entries. Their time in WEC is a almost a proof of their potential in Formula 1.
I honestly don't see Toyota coming back into Formula One with the proposed simplified power units. They wouldn't need the additional expense as they are already in WEC as their R&D venture. Maybe if Tesla entered F1 (never happen) they would feel compelled to match them.
Any Cosworth entry I'm a bit skeptical about. I was doing some minimal research and the last teams to use their engines in Formula One weren't all that successful. They've even had some poor reliability issues in the past. And that was with simple engines. I think, like with Honda, people are caught up in nostalgia. At least Honda has a global multi-billion dollar operation with a real reason for being in F1. What will Jaguar/Cosworth gain? Marketing can't be the only reason to take on the F1 expense.
I don't know enough about Lamborghini and their interest.
Ford. They've stated time and again they weren't interested. I do know more about their financials and I can't see what it would serve for them to enter F1 with the proposed simpler power units. The proposed PUs really would provide very little in the way of being an R&D proving ground. 15K RPM 1.6L V6es with KERS might push material sciences/engineering but it wouldn't do much for efficiency or battery technology.
I have an unfounded suspicion that Toyota, Porsche/VW and Ford are pushing this simpler tech because they fear that Mercedes, Renault and Honda will gain too much and will beat them in the competition that really matters. That being the global consumer energy market.
It would be a shame to lose Honda again... yes, I really do feel that way. Mercedes and Renault employ so many people now, it would be a shame to see those racing teams become shells. That said, more teams, more companies, might make the racing more interesting.
I have no interest in people who aren't willing to say what they think, I happen to think you are right on many of your points, with Bernie gone, yeah, Porsche are interested in F1, and are absolutely wanting to get in. They're also clearly concerned (as the VW Group) about Mercedes rapid advancement in Heat Energy Recovery (HER) as it's HER that will make electric motors efficient / viable in the near future... hence my personal belief Toyota ARE interested. The Toyota board refused to ratify their continued involvement in WEC as well so they're clearly not committed totally to the WEC formula.
As to the Jaguar / Cosworth interest... I know people at both. They are genuinely interested, Jaguars new India owners in particular want to get in on the act. They want the Jaguar brand in F1, and I think they have the cash to do it. However they are viewing it as a sporting / marketing endeavor, not an R&D venture, hence the push for simpler engines. They're not interested in HER, or making great technical advancements.
As to the proposed engines, I agree, to most manufacturers they'll look at it and go "yeah, I can do that no problem", and I think that's the real issue. They don't want to rock up to a sport, just to 'sport'. They need more out of it, and these proposed engines just do not do that for them, there's nothing they can't get from elsewhere cheaper, and arguable with better financial streams backing the R&D.
Ford? They're not really interested, I don't believe it, LM were also trying to claim Chevrolet were interested in F1, but Chevy themselves shot that down, so I honestly think they're just trying to heap pressure on current manufacturers to remain by saying"well your competitors are interested so we won't miss you". Trouble is when you have LM making silly mistakes in their 'lies' (maybe too strong a word there) like both Porsche and Lamborghini being interested (both VW Group) and Nissan (technology partners with Renault, and currently helping Renault with their batteries and HERS problem) I think the current manufacturers see right through it, and yeah, I too think there is some mischief going on here. When Mercedes claimed, then proved they had an engine on a dyno reaching over 50% efficiency I think it sent shivers down the spines of most manufacturers. Then when Renault and Ferrari made claims they'd be hitting around 45% soon as well... lets just say I bet there was loosening of bowels around various corporate boards. Even Honda THIS year achieved 37% efficiency and seem confident of even bigger gains (whether they see that in the cars is another question), if you're the VW Group, if you're Toyota or even Ford, you look at that and go "we're nowhere near that" and as stated elsewhere on these boards, HER is of paramount importance going forward not just for ICE, but also electronic motors, currently F1 is the R&D super fast lane for that.
Porsche? In short I think VW Group with Porsche are interested, and interested in HER.
Jaguar / Cosworth? They want in as a sporting endeavor, and would seriously reconsider if they had to produce a HER unit of some kind, plus don't think they'd be a massive boost to the sport.
Aston Martin? They too are seriously interested. They don't have the resources currently to produce a current unit, but they too must see the HER writing on the wall.
Ford? Playing mischief, I think they're concerned about HER, but I also don't think they have the resources OR will to get back involved in F1.
Lamborghini? No, sorry LM, I saw straight through that ruse (hey, that's a better word than lie), if the VW Group get involved, it'll be via Porsche.
Nissan? See comment above, if LM are going to try bluffing, they need a stronger playbook.
Chevrolet? Already laughed off by them.
Toyota? I too originally thought not likely, but their lack of commitment to WEC beyond their current contract has got me thinking they might like to come back to F1. They also have HER R&D up and running and were pushing it in WEC.
In summary Porsche are interested full stop. The others? They're either not genuine, or their agendas don't line up and are faffing about really. Toyota and more specifically Porsche are from the list the only real potential contenders. I think Aston Martin would like to be... but I don't think they have the resources. So long and short of it, FOM, LM and the FIA can't risk losing Renault, Honda and Mercedes (possibly even Ferrari) to only maybe get Porsche and Toyota.