[Jody Barton]

LotusLover I take issue with your claim we always predict a Red Bull lock out at Monaco. I remember very well having discussions with Papa, Morini, Forza and others last season where we predicted the shoot out would be between Red Bull and Ferrari and I distinctly remember discussing S2 in Australia, S3 from Barcelona and also the Russian GP. In concluding Morini and Forza both tipped Ferrari last year at Monaco, and I leaned that way but I still felt that maybe red Bull would pip them. So it's not every season.

So looking at this year's evidence we don't necessarily have as much, because we sure as hell don't have the full Russia GP. What we do have is S2 in Australia, S2 in Baku and S3 in Barcelona. Here's where it gets interesting:

Australia S2:

Hamilton
Verstappen
Räikkönen

Baku S2

Verstappen
Ricciardo
Vettel

Barcelona S3

Verstappen
Ricciardo
Hamilton

It's a lot more mixed than it was, but I'd suggest that the evidence there is favours Red Bull. However, it's not that straight forward. It's always been clear that RBR for whatever reason struggle with elevation changes, and Monaco has plenty of that. Ferrari's car is very different this year to last year's but I still expect it to retain some of its characteristics, and last year it did very well in elevation changes. Not sure how Merc will cope, but I expect them to struggle.